The Monthly Target That Keeps Your Weekly Bias Honest
The one target that doesn't change just because Tuesday looked bearish.
Before you start: Pairs with Weekly Context — same idea, one timeframe higher.
Part of the My Edge Official framework — refined through thousands of hours of chart study.
The monthly objective isn't there to tell you where to enter today. It's there to tell you where price is most likely headed over the coming weeks — and to keep your weekly bias from becoming something you reinvent from scratch every Monday without an anchor.
- Core Idea
- Questions You Must Answer
- How Professionals Read It
- Practical Application
- Common Mistakes
The monthly objective doesn't tell you where to enter today. It tells you where price is most likely headed over the coming weeks — and it keeps you from reinventing your weekly bias from scratch every Monday with no anchor.
You analyze external liquidity (the monthly high/low), internal liquidity (gaps), imbalances, and whether price is in premium or discount. The result is one sentence: where price is likely headed, with what level of confidence, and what would invalidate it.
That sentence then becomes your anchor for the next five weeks — even if one week shows a move in the opposite direction, you first ask whether that's part of the path toward the objective or an actual invalidation.
Advanced explanation⌄
Core Idea
The Monthly Objective defines the highest-probability destination toward which price is headed. It provides the highest level of context for every trading decision. It doesn't define where you enter — it defines where price is most likely trying to go.
Questions You Must Answer
External liquidity — the monthly high and low, buy-side liquidity, sell-side liquidity, equal highs and equal lows. Which liquidity is most likely to be run first, and why?
Internal liquidity — fair value gaps, volume imbalances, opening gaps, balanced price ranges, order blocks (if relevant). Which internal liquidity is currently attracting price?
Imbalances — are there any monthly fair value gaps or volume imbalances present?
Equal highs/lows — are any present at the monthly level?
Premium/Discount — is price currently in premium or discount? Is there room for expansion?
Context — is price expanding, retracing, or rebalancing?
How Professionals Read It
At the end of the analysis you must define: the monthly objective, the confidence level, the supporting evidence, and the alternative scenario.
Practical Application
At the start of the month you determine: last month's high remains unswept (external liquidity, buy-side), price is currently in discount relative to the monthly equilibrium, and there's an unfilled monthly fair value gap below the current price (internal liquidity that could pull price back for the entire month before it continues upward). Output: the monthly objective is "buy-side liquidity above last month's high," the confidence level is "moderate" (because the monthly FVG hasn't been filled yet), and the alternative scenario is "rebalancing into the monthly FVG before continuation, rather than a direct move to the objective."
This one sentence then becomes the anchor for the next five weeks — even if an individual week shows a move in the opposite direction, you first ask whether it's a path toward this objective or an actual invalidation of it.
⚠️ Skipping the alternative scenario. Without a written alternative scenario, every opposing move can look like a surprise, even though it should have been anticipated as a possibility.
Common Mistakes
- Reassessing too often. The monthly objective doesn't change weekly — it changes only once it's actually delivered or when new, clear evidence appears at the monthly level.
- Confusing the monthly objective with the weekly narrative. This is exactly the distinction that Market Hierarchy explains — objective and narrative are not the same thing.
How to Use It
In practice:
- Do this analysis once at the start of each month (or when the monthly context changes significantly) — it isn't a daily task, it's an anchor you return to.
- Write the monthly objective as one clear sentence plus an alternative scenario — not just a single direction. When the weekly or daily narrative moves in the opposite direction, check this document first before concluding that "everything has changed."
- Use this together with Market Hierarchy — the monthly objective is the highest station in the hierarchy and remains valid until it's explicitly delivered or invalidated by new evidence.
Don't stop here — see how this fits with the rest of the framework.
Continue to Daily Trading SOP →Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Monthly Objective?⌄
It's the highest-probability destination price is headed toward over the coming weeks, defined once at the start of the month using external liquidity, internal liquidity, imbalances, equal highs/lows, and premium/discount location.
How often should the Monthly Objective be reassessed?⌄
Only once at the start of each month, or when genuinely new evidence appears at the monthly level — reassessing it weekly is called out as a common mistake, since it isn't meant to change just because one week looked different.
What's the difference between the Monthly Objective and the Weekly Narrative?⌄
The Monthly Objective is the highest station in the timeframe hierarchy and stays valid until delivered or invalidated by new monthly-level evidence; the Weekly Narrative is how price is currently approaching that objective, and it changes far more often.
What should the output of a Monthly Objective analysis look like?⌄
One clear sentence stating the objective, a confidence level, the supporting evidence, and an explicit alternative scenario — skipping the alternative scenario is flagged as a common mistake that makes opposing moves feel like surprises.